Turkey has emerged as an important actor in the mediation process between Ukraine and Russia after the beginning of the war. Ankara has launched bilateral and multilateral forms of relationship with the employment of mediation tools. Participation of Kyiv and Moscow in the talks made Turkey become a rising mediator in the region. Furthermore, the country drew the attention of the United Nations and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the Ukrainian war period with its successful mediation efforts.
As a NATO member, Turkey has maritime borders and maintains good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. According to statistics, up to 30 percent of Russian tourists dominate Turkey’s tourism sector. In addition, Turkey depends on Russia for 45 percent of its natural gas, 17 percent of oil and 40 percent of its gasoline needs. 

Similarly, the country’s relationship with Ukraine accounts for a substantial portion of tourism, food and other sectors. Ukraine trusts Turkey’s efforts with its long history of experience in mediations in the Balkans, the Middle East and the Caucasus since the Mustafa Kemal Ataturk period. Ankara pursued a unique neutrality and gained the confidence of both countries.

Turkey’s position in the Ukraine war signaled positive outcomes regarding mediation between the conflicting parties. On March 10, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov met in Turkey, which became the first high-level meeting after the war. However, the meeting ended without any concrete results. Although the ceasefire and the situation of the civilians in the conflict zone were discussed in this meeting, there was no consensus. Also, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Russia and Ukraine during the same period.

One month after the beginning of the war, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul for negotiations on March 29. In the meeting, Russian forces guaranteed their withdrawal from the northern parts of Kyiv by emphasizing it was not a ceasefire attempt. The Russia delegation pointed out the importance of mutual trust. 

On the other side, Ukraine committed to accept a neutral status including a plan to host no foreign troops of NATO countries. The Ukrainian side called the meeting a “victory” because of the mediation initiatives of Turkey, which is considered to be its “brother” and “partner.” The Russian side showed its satisfaction and described the meeting as “substantial talks.”

Another important initiative of Turkey emerged over the grain shipment problem. As Russia and Ukraine are top producers of grain, barley and sunflower seeds, the ongoing war prevented the exports of food materials. The Russian blockade of the Black Sea ports of Ukraine obstructed the exports of more than 20 million tons of grain. 

This paved the way for risks of food shortages in many countries which must feed millions of people. The U.N. announced that up to 181 million people could face an acute hunger due to the ongoing crisis. Russia accused Ukraine of deploying sea mines, while the Ukrainian side blamed Russia for sending missiles to coastal areas.

Finally, Russia and Ukraine agreed on a new proposal, and shipments restarted after their meeting in July 2022. In doing so, Turkey made this shipment possible after the agreement and had a chance to demonstrate its geopolitical importance since the shipment had to be made through the Turkish straits connecting the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

The U.N. stated that cargo ships would use “safe channels” identified by Ukraine as they sail in the Black Sea ports, and they would be guided by Ukrainian staff. Moreover, the U.N. demanded no military ships would be used as escorts, but a minesweeper would be ready to ensure the security and avoid concerns. Both parties assured that no interference will come from them to break the rules.

The Russia-Ukraine War brought social, political and economic danger to Europe and the Black Sea region. This situation caused a regional destabilization that directly harms Turkey’s regional policy. Therefore, Turkey preferred adopting a balanced policy between Ukraine and Russia. 

Furthermore, Turkey welcomed Russian investors in real estate and other sectors after the Western sanctions. Ankara also began offering citizenship in exchange of a $400,000 investment. Financial flows, tourism attraction and trade opportunities emerged as a remedy for the country. Additionally, Russian companies began preferring Turkey to export their goods to other countries. 

Five Turkish banks commenced work to facilitate the use of the Mir payment system, making financial transactions easier for Russian people in Turkey. Therefore, home sales to Russians grew by 95 percent, while sales to Ukrainians reached 85 percent between February and June 2022. 

On the other side, the Russian nuclear company Rosatom agreed to transfer $15 billion to Turkey for the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. As energy supply became another essential issue for the European countries, a Turkey-Israel gas pipeline appeared as an alternative to the Russian energy threat. 

This development accelerated Turkish-Israeli rapprochement after Turkey’s “new normalization” with the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Lastly, Turkish efforts led to NATO’s green light to Ankara’s demands over Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession process. It was the first time that Turkey raised its voice against newcomers to NATO.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2022/10/137_337379.html